Tuesday, June 08, 2021

Not Gerrymandering Redwood City? How could we tell?

Until the 2018 election, elections for City Council seats were city-wide. In 2019, in response to a California Voting Rights Act lawsuit, the city began a process of partitioning voters into seven districts for the first by-district City Council election, held in 2020.

A redistricting process, based on the results of the 2020 census, will begin soon, and must be completed in time for the next City Council election in 2022. But what's a fair way to partition the city into districts? What outcome are we looking for, and what districting plan is likely to move us toward the desired outcome?

I am not a lawyer, but my vague understanding of the lawsuit is that when we have only at-large elections, certain non-white ethnic groups tend to be under-represented in elective office. This makes me think we ought to aim for a situation where the number of districts where a given ethnic group has a plurality of voters should mirror that group's proportion of the city's population.

Let's imagine a city where population breaks down by ethnicity like this:

  population percentage
White (non-Hispanic/Latino) 33,801 44.0%
Hispanic/Latino 29,810 38.8%
Asian 8,063 10.5%
Black/African American 1,655 2.2%
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 732 1.0%
American Indian/Alaskan Native 152 0.2%
Two or More Races 2,311 3.0%
Some Other Race Alone 291 0.4%
Total: 76,815 100%

(source: https://www.redwoodcity.org/about-the-city/demographics/race )

What kind of districting scheme do we want to see? First, let me describe a partitioning that I would not like:

  • District 1:
    44% non-Hispanic/Latino white; 39% Hispanic/Latino; 11% Asian; 6% mixed/other;
  • District 2:
    44% non-Hispanic/Latino white; 39% Hispanic/Latino; 11% Asian; 6% mixed/other;
  • District 3,4,5,6,7:
    44% non-Hispanic/Latino white; 39% Hispanic/Latino; 11% Asian; 6% mixed/other;
How would such a partitioning scheme remedy the under-representation of the Hispanic/Latino or Asian demographic in elective office? I don't see how it would, either.

Since 1/7 comes to about 14%, how many of the 7 City Council districts would ideally have a plurality (if not a majority) of non-Hispanic/Latino white people? Of Hispanic/Latino folks? Of Asians? I would suggest that what we should aim for in districts is:

  • Three districts where the plurality of residents are non-Hispanic/Latino white;
  • Two or three districts where the plurality of residents are Hispanic/Latino;
  • One district where the plurality of residents are Asian
  • Maybe a district where the plurality of residents are mixed or other? Maybe.
Does this make any kind of sense as something to aim at? If not, why not?