A redistricting process, based on the results of the 2020 census, will begin soon, and must be completed in time for the next City Council election in 2022. But what's a fair way to partition the city into districts? What outcome are we looking for, and what districting plan is likely to move us toward the desired outcome?
I am not a lawyer, but my vague understanding of the lawsuit is that when we have only at-large elections, certain non-white ethnic groups tend to be under-represented in elective office. This makes me think we ought to aim for a situation where the number of districts where a given ethnic group has a plurality of voters should mirror that group's proportion of the city's population.
Let's imagine a city where population breaks down by ethnicity like this:
population | percentage | |
White (non-Hispanic/Latino) | 33,801 | 44.0% |
Hispanic/Latino | 29,810 | 38.8% |
Asian | 8,063 | 10.5% |
Black/African American | 1,655 | 2.2% |
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander | 732 | 1.0% |
American Indian/Alaskan Native | 152 | 0.2% |
Two or More Races | 2,311 | 3.0% |
Some Other Race Alone | 291 | 0.4% |
Total: | 76,815 | 100% |
(source: https://www.redwoodcity.org/about-the-city/demographics/race )
What kind of districting scheme do we want to see? First, let me describe a partitioning that I would not like:
- District 1:
44% non-Hispanic/Latino white; 39% Hispanic/Latino; 11% Asian; 6% mixed/other; - District 2:
44% non-Hispanic/Latino white; 39% Hispanic/Latino; 11% Asian; 6% mixed/other; - District 3,4,5,6,7:
44% non-Hispanic/Latino white; 39% Hispanic/Latino; 11% Asian; 6% mixed/other;
Since 1/7 comes to about 14%, how many of the 7 City Council districts would ideally have a plurality (if not a majority) of non-Hispanic/Latino white people? Of Hispanic/Latino folks? Of Asians? I would suggest that what we should aim for in districts is:
- Three districts where the plurality of residents are non-Hispanic/Latino white;
- Two or three districts where the plurality of residents are Hispanic/Latino;
- One district where the plurality of residents are Asian
- Maybe a district where the plurality of residents are mixed or other? Maybe.